It’s not an accident that every time you turn around in Pennsylvania this election season, you bump into some famous Democratic leader: President Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, or former President Bill Clinton.
Why? They’re here to fill the much-discussed “enthusiasm gap.”
In just the last few weeks, this gap moved from chatter on political talk shows to being a deadly serious political question – can Democrats fire up their core supporters enough to fend off what polls suggest is a wildly enthusiastic Republican electorate that senses it is about to take over Congress and governorships across the country.
Today, as part of Election 2010, our collaboration with Philly.com, we will look at what this “enthusiasm gap” represents. And we’ll point you to the interesting races so you can learn more about the candidates and what’s at stake, so maybe you’ll be excited about voting on November 2, whatever party you may support.
- Oct. 20, 2010
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So what is the “enthusiasm gap?”
Basically, polls show that Republican voters are fired up about the November election and Democrats aren’t. That’s the exact opposite of what happened in 2008, when Republicans were discouraged and Democrats were excited about the chance to take back the White House.
Why does it matter who is “fired up”?
It’s all a question of turnout. The “enthusiasm gap” is about who will bother to show up on Election Day. Just in Pennsylvania, there are about a million more Democrats than Republicans (4.3 million to 3.1 million), but that won’t matter on Election Day if most Democrats stay home and most Republicans come out to vote. That’s why Democratic leaders are so worried.
Is there anything special about Pennsylvania this year?
This is an important state with a lot at stake, particularly for Democrats: a Democratic U.S. senator is leaving office, the Democratic governor is out because of term limits, and there are four or five congressional districts where Republicans have a serious chance of beating a Democratic incumbent. At the state level, Democrats only outnumber Republicans in the State House of Representatives by 104-99 (Republicans already control the State senate).
Do any races matter locally?
Yes. There are three hot House races in the Philly Suburbs - the 6th, 7th, and 8th Congressional Districts, and the 13th could be interesting as well. Over in New Jersey, the 3rd District, around Cherry Hill, is close as well. Also, since Philadelphia is the largest city in the state (and overwhelmingly Democratic), this area will be key in the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Joe Sestak and Republican Pat Toomey and the gubernatorial race between Democrat Dan Onorato and Republican Tom Corbett. We have
details on these races here.But does it really matter who’s in charge?
Yes, it really does. The party in control of Congress gets to say how much money gets spent and who gets it. It can pass or block President Obama’s agenda. The party in control of the state government will draw the new boundaries of congressional and state legislative districts next year, based on new Census data. How those districts are redrawn has a big effect on which party dominates Washington and Harrisburg for the next 10 years, until the 2020 Census.
So why does the Committee of Seventy care?
We’re fiercely non-partisan, so we don’t endorse political candidates. But we do like to get as many people involved in the process as possible – so we encourage you to vote no matter who you’re supporting (or even how enthusiastic you are).
Why are Democrats not enthusiastic? What happened since 2008?
That’s a complex question and there are many different answers. For example, some of President Obama’s more liberal supporters are disappointed that he hasn’t been as active as they believe he should be on issues such as civil rights or ending the wars overseas. Other Democrats are down because the economy remains in the doldrums. And for the same reasons, some of the independents who supported Obama in 2008 tell pollsters they are leaning Republican in this November election.
But why are Republicans so energized?
They smell victory. Polls show that Republican voters don’t like President Obama’s policies and are eager to take control of Congress to stop him (they need to gain 39 seats in the House and 10 in the Senate). They’re joined by a wave of voters known loosely as the “Tea Partiers,” who are angry about government spending and policies such as the new health care reform law, which they say gives the government too much power.
I thought I had heard voters were fed up with all politicians, not just Democrats.
That is true also, according to polls. Voters are generally unhappy with both parties. So it’s not that Republicans are necessarily more popular with voters, but they’re the main alternative if you are angry and don’t want to vote for the party that is in charge. The party in power generally loses some seats in Congress in a midterm election like this, but the grim mood of the country may make it even worse for the Democrats.
What do you mean an “midterm election?”
That’s what we call an election year with no presidential contest. Remember that members of the House of Representatives are elected every two years (in even-numbered years), but presidents are only elected every four years. The last presidential election was 2008 and the next one is 2012, so this is an midterm election. Turnout is generally low in midterm elections – only about 40 percent of registered voters showed up in 2006 – making an imbalance in enthusiasm between the parties even more significant.
Will the enthusiasm gap last until the election?
We’ll only know for sure after November 2, but polls nationwide suggest that it will. Nationally, more Republicans say they will show up on Election Day than Democrats (one month before the election, for example, the pollster Gallup found that at least 53 percent of people who said they were likely to vote were supporting Republicans).
What about in Pennsylvania?
It’s about the same as the national picture.
Recent polls by Franklin & Marshall College show that a majority of Pennsylvanians who say they are likely to vote are supporting Republicans in two important Congressional races and in the statewide Senate and gubernatorial races.
So Republicans are sure to win on Election Day?
Hardly. Remember that polling is just a snapshot of how people are feeling at any moment. And it’s far from an exact science. Polls can be wrong, and voters’ mood can change quickly.
But does having someone like President Obama visit in person make any difference?
That is a hard question and there is probably no way to know for sure. But when the president shows up in town for a rally, to give a speech, or to raise money for candidates, it tends to generate a lot of news coverage. Some Democratic candidates, though, aren’t so eager to be seen with the president, whose poll numbers are low, so he picks where he goes carefully.
You mean some Democrats don’t want to appear with the president?
Right. Candidates running in districts where the president is unpopular worry they will lose votes if he shows up. This same thing happened for Republicans in 2006 and 2008, when President Bush wasn’t doing so well in the polls. Former President Clinton has been stepping in for Obama into some of those shaky districts around the country, including in Pennsylvania.
Are Republicans doing anything to keep their momentum up?
Of course. GOP candidates know their supporters could easily stay home if they think the election is in the bag, thereby opening the door for an upset win by their Democratic rivals. Republicans are getting some of their own celebrities on the road, including New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is traveling all over (including Pennsylvania) campaigning for Republicans.
Other than polls, is there any sign of what will happen on Election Day?
There have been some elections so far in the last 12 months, including the 2009 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. Republicans won both. And in the primary elections this year, Republican turnout was much higher than Democratic turnout.
Does that mean Republicans really are on a roll?
It feels that way, but remember that there were a number of interesting primary elections on the Republican side last spring that got their voters excited. It’s too early to say whether the imbalance of vote totals in the primaries will hold on Election Day. And we have yet to see how strong a force the Tea Party really is in a general election.
Ok, now I am excited. How do I get involved?
Sadly, it is too late to register to vote in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, though if you are registered already, you have until October 26 to get an absentee ballot by mail in both states. In New Jersey (but not Pennsylvania) you can also apply for an absentee ballot in person at your county clerk’s office until 3 p.m. on November 1. We have
information on absentee voting here.And if you are registered, please be sure to actually show up to vote on November 2, no matter who you’re supporting. If you want to know more about the candidates, you can visit their websites. The Committee of Seventy has
links to the local races here.
We also have information
about the candidates and
what they are saying about the issues at our Election 2010 project with Philly.com.
Please tell us what you think of this or any other “In the Know” feature at info@seventy.org.