RUNNING DOWN THE SENATE CANDIDATES, AFTER FUMO 

With the sudden departure of Vince Fumo from the race for Philadelphia's First Senate District, we are left with three Democrats running in the April 22nd primary for the party nomination.

To list them quickly, there is:

Anne Dicker, 35. Best known as an anti-casino activist, Dicker also ran for the state legislature in 2006 as one of three candidates seeking the seat of retiring state Rep. Marie Lederer. She wasn't given much of a chance, but surprised people by coming within 328 votes of the favorite, Michael O'Brien. Her base is Queen Village and among voters who live near the two casino sites.

John Dougherty, 47, is head of Local 98 of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW). Also known (by almost everyone in politics) as Johnny Doc, Dougherty is a former Fumo ally turned bitter enemy. Doc is a nice enough guy in person, but he's been known to use brass-knuckle tactics in union and political fights. His base is the South Philly neighborhood of Pennsport, also known as Two Street.

Larry Farnese, 39, a lawyer and Democratic activist and also a member of a well-known South Philadelphia family. His grandfather, Andrew Farnese, was once head of the Philadelphia School Board. This is Farnese's second try at public office. In 2006, he ran against incumbent state Rep. Babette Josephs in the primary and nearly unseated her. His base is Center City.

Now let me dispense some convention wisdom: The consensus is that the race is Johnny Doc's to lose. He has the name recognition and he surely will have the most money, much of it drawn from contributions from his and other unions.

When Doc announced his candidacy the other week, Pat Gillespie, president of the Philadelphia Building Trades Council, took the stage to boast that the unions in the council had already pledged $250,000 for the Dougherty campaign.

Doc is already spending money on direct mail. I live in the district and have gotten three 'Vote for Doc' pieces in the mail in the last 10 days.

He's also been lining up support from South Philadelphia ward leaders, now free from pledges to support Fumo.

If I were Doc, I wouldn't be drafting my victory speech. He has several potential problems.

One of them is Farnese.

Since Vince left the stage, Farnese has been picking up support from Fumo supporters, notably Councilmen Jim Kenney and Frank DiCicco and Roseanne Pauciello, leader of South Philly's Ward 39 A.. He has brought on Fumo media consultant Ken Snyder to do his TV commercials and direct mail. Word on the street is that Fumo may steer contributors to Farnese's campaign. (Under the old theory that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.)

Farnese had $50,000 on hand in first campaign disclosure report of 2008. That is not enough to run a credible campaign. He will need at least $250,000. If he can raise it, he has a shot. Of all the candidates, Farnese has the greatest potential for growth -- as a candidate acceptable to voters in Center City and environs (which has about 45 percent of the district's voters) and in South Philly (which equals 42 percent of the district.)

With enough money, Farnese can rough up Dougherty and remind voters of his weaknesses – not the least of which is an ongoing FBI investigation into Dougherty's dealings with a contractor friend.
Farnese already made mention of it in his first TV commercial, which ran on cable. Here is the YouTube link.

As of now, Dicker is the weakest of the three, mostly because she doesn't have money. Her last campaign report showed her with less than $13,000. She needs a lot more than that to get her message out.

So, the most important questions are: Can Farnese and Dicker raise enough money to run credible campaigns? Can Dougherty expand beyond his base in Irish-Catholic Pennsport and convince Center City residents and South Philly's Italian-American voters to support him?

And the biggest question of all: What will voter turnout be and what effect will it have on the race?

In 2004, Fumo's primary opponent was Dr. James Tayoun, the son of the former Councilman. Fumo won easily and there was a total of about 34,000 votes cast in that election – about 25 percent of eligible voters..

This year, because of the super-heated presidential primary between Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama, I expect turnout to be closer to 50 percent of eligible Democrats.

What will the infusion of so many new voters mean? That's exactly what each campaign is trying to figure out as you read this piece.